My take on the markets – by Sam Judlo

Market buoyancy was based on economic expansion with tolerance that rates would go up – gradually because of expansion. Goldilocks scenario. More of everything good to come. Whoops. Assumptions abruptly changed to perception of oncoming restrictive trade policies among other holes in Market-Disneyland. Third party invasion of Facebook triggered the biggest decline in that stock since going public. Facebook backlash – 14% decline this week alone. Zuckerberg – come on – no worries – you personally lost $3.0 Billion this week – Maduro of Venezuela couldn’t even come up with that – and that’s a county of over 30 million people. You’re ok Mark. Chinese responded by tariff levies of their own. No telling where that will stop, lead to, reverse or intensify. Nobody knows if tariffs are posturing for better trade terms or a restrictive agenda to erroneously “Make America great again”. No clue by anyone, especially Trump. Yea, you’re gonna apply a Clint Eastwood, bully approach with China. Right. Try instead to talk a bear to come down from a tree. See if you succeed. Business activity in the Eurozone reported by Citi, slowed most in two years. Inflow into treasuries hit financial stocks because Bank profits are priced as a parallel to higher rates, not lower rates and safe haven inflow drove rates lower. Amazing, because the Fed telegraphed 3-4 rate increases this year. But – when Funds bail out of stocks, they have to park it in treasuries. And that parking lot sits high on shaky pillars. This week, psychological “animal spirit” have been damaged and the “risk off” mode kicked in. Buy the second home or sports car is postponed because of uncertainty. May not be real, but what is real is entirely inside the head. And that is where reality resides. It is a mode that drives people to stay home, order pizza and watch Netflix. A mode different than a month ago, of making a reservation at the difficult to get into restaurant. Call up now – reservations are available. But if not, I’m game to come over for Pizza and Netflix. But do open the expensive bottle of wine. Not the cheap one. Might as well. Right now tomorrow is unpredictable. To top it off, John Bolton will tell you how unpredictable everything is. He has had much practice at describing everything as somber and gloomy. His boss shares his views. Don’t forget that expensive bottle of wine. By next Friday, you may have to open the most expensive bottle in your inventory.